Nation to become world's largest aviation services market by 2043

China will overtake North America and Europe to become the world's largest market for aviation services by 2043, with its market value almost tripling from $23 billion in 2024 to $61 billion in 2043, European aircraft manufacturer Airbus said in its latest global services forecast in Beijing.

The aviation services market value this year in China so far has risen to $23 billion from $18.6 billion last year, up 24 percent year-on-year, Airbus said on Thursday.

The tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference that concluded last week urged more efforts to vigorously boost domestic consumption and culture tourism next year.

"Higher demand and spending on travel will drive growth of the civil aviation market, and we are bullish on the growth potential of the air transportation market next year," said Hu Yongdong, vice-president of strategy, development and operations of customer service at Airbus China.

China's civil aviation market has been resilient and shown rapid growth this year. As of Dec 15, domestic carriers had transported a record number of over 700 million passengers, said the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

Daily average passenger volume has exceeded 2 million, up 18.1 percent year-on-year, and an increase of 10.7 percent over the pre-COVID level seen in 2019, a new high in China's civil aviation development history, the CAAC said.

Airbus said that further growth of China's international hub airports has made it easier for passengers to connect with domestic traffic. In the next two decades, China will continue to show a strong growth potential of its fleet size.

By 2043, China is expected to have 11,160 aircraft in service, of which 9,520 are new deliveries, including passenger aircraft and freighters. China accounts for 20 percent of global demand. The new generation of digital aircraft will account for the main proportion of the fleet, Airbus said.

Driven by strong growth of new deliveries and growing traffic demand, China's overall demand for services is forecast to grow by a compound annual growth rate of 5.1 percent, making the country the biggest services market globally.

The three main drivers for the growth of services demand are maintenance; training and operations; and fleet enhancement solutions.

In particular, fleet enhancement solutions, representing 10 percent of the overall services market and mainly concerning connectivity solutions enabled by digitalization, is expected to be the sector with the fastest growth. The sector is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.6 percent from $2 billion this year to $6 billion in 2043.

By 2043, China is expected to operate more than 9,500 connected aircraft, and digital services and interconnected ecosystems will create new value for the aviation sector, Airbus said.

"Domestic carriers have indicated a significant interest in equipping the aircraft with on-board Wi-Fi service, and we have received a large number of inquiries regarding the service," Hu said.

Maintenance services represent almost 83 percent of the total services market in China. The maintenance sector is expected to grow from $19 billion this year to $51 billion in 2043 as fleet expansion and aging fleets drive demand for maintenance, dismantling and recycling, and the business of used serviceable material.

Additionally, new skills are required with the application of new digital technologies. For the training and operations market, China's civil aviation sector is forecast to need an additional 478,000 skilled workers over the next 20 years. Those include 155,000 new technicians, 124,000 new pilots and 199,000 new cabin crew.

Meanwhile, US aircraft manufacturer Boeing predicted that by 2043, China is expected to require 130,000 new pilots, 137,000 new maintenance personnel and 163,000 new cabin crew.

Eurasia, China and North America will drive over half of the total demand globally for new industry personnel over the next 20 years, Boeing said.