A-share market to go up in long term

Updated: Oct 17, 2023 By Yang Yang Print
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The recovery of multiple economic and financial data supports the long-term growth of the A-share market, Securities Daily reported on Monday.

Domestic factors influencing A-shares are showing signs of improvement, while the negative impact of international factors might have reached its peak, said Dong Zhongyun, chief economist at China AVIC Securities.

Accumulating positive factors in the A-share market suggest an improvement in the market's performance, with the possibility of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Dong.

The September Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has seen a continuous increase for four consecutive months.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2 percent month-on-month in September, maintaining stable operation.

In terms of social financing data, the total increment in social financing during the first three quarters of the year reached 29.33 trillion yuan ($4.03 trillion), which is 1.41 trillion yuan more than the same period in the previous year.

Notably, social financing saw an increment of 4.12 trillion yuan in September, surpassing market expectations.

The sub-index for new orders in the Manufacturing PMI remained above 50 percent for the second consecutive month in September, said Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities.

Income from domestic tourism during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday showed growth compared to the same period in 2019, indicating an improvement in the previously restricting issue of "insufficient demand" for economic recovery, according to Ming.

The Manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion zone and the continuous high business activity expectations index in September reflect enhanced corporate outlooks and confidence, said Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities.

Chen predicts that corporate loans are expected to increase year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Growth-stabilizing policies are providing vital support to the real economy and laying the foundation for credit growth.

The release of various policies, including central bank's interest rate cuts, activating capital markets and stabilizing real estate market, have worked together to boost market stability and enhance investor confidence, Chen said.

China's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to recover to above 5 percent, and the annual economic growth rate for 2023 will surpass the initial target of 5 percent set at the beginning of the year.

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