Economists share views at Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economists Forum

The Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economists Forum was held online on Saturday, titled "Turbulent 2022 - Global & China Economy and Policy Outlook".

Renowned professionals, experts and economists shared their views on China's economic expectations amid a changing international and domestic environment, and how to maintain economic growth by giving full play to fiscal and monetary policies.

Let's hear some of what they had to say.

China will maintain a dynamic economic growth rate, said Justin Lin Yifu, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University.

"China's per capita GDP is relatively low currently. However, as the country catches up fast and grabs late mover advantages, it is expected to have a growth potential of 8 percent every year," Lin said.

China has already been the world's top economy in terms of purchasing power parity with a massive domestic market, and accounts for a high share of the international economy, Lin added.

China should stay open and be a promoter of globalization, and if the country could maintain its high growth rate, it would continue to boost the global economy, he said.

China has the confidence and capability to overcome challenges both at home and abroad, said Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC International.

The country is now facing triple pressures - sporadic virus outbreaks, the monetary policy shift of major developed economies and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which all increase the instability of capital flows and impede the recovery of global supply chains, Guan said.

For China, he added, it's critical to stabilize the macroeconomics and keep its world-leading spot in economic recovery and COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control.

China's economic performance in the second half of this year will be significantly better than the first half, said Sheng Songcheng, professor of economics and finance at China Europe International Business School.

Sheng estimated the economic growth rate will reach 1.7 to 3.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, and the figure may stay at about 2.1 percent.

Under this condition, the GDP is expected to grow about 3.5 percent in the first half.

"If the growth rate can hit 5.5 percent in the third quarter and 6 percent in the fourth, then the GDP for 2022 is still likely to register 5 percent growth," Sheng said.

China should eye on consumption to boost domestic demand with more fiscal policy support injected into the sector, said Li Xunlei, chief economist at Zhongtai Securities.

To fully stimulate domestic circulation, infrastructure investment is not enough, Li said. Fiscal policy support should also be applied to enhance consumption, and government should take multiple measures to improve the income structure of residents.

Li suggested the government can issue shopping coupons, which is more targeted than the direct cash payments issued by the US.

The anchor of the RMB should be established at an appropriate time, said Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing.

Renminbi issuance is still partly anchored to the US dollar, but it's not a long-term solution for China's future international status and development needs, Huang said.

A country will have independent monetary policy and the benchmark of pricing of all domestic financial assets only if it has independent currency anchor, he added.

Monetary and fiscal policies can keep the economy running smoothly in the short term, but more attention should be paid to the structural potential that can truly drive economic growth in the long run, said Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Affairs Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

Combating climate change is one of the few areas on which global consensus has been reached, Liu said. Therefore, we should focus on promoting green technology and turn the pressure of climate change into a driving force for global innovation and growth.

Liu added technological innovation can greatly reduce the cost of human society to deal with climate change. As the global economy enters the stage of digital transformation, Liu said he believed the digital economy will bring massive opportunities for both developed and developing countries.