The gap between the consumer price index and producer price index in September is expected to expand due to a fall in pork prices and a rise in the price of energy and means of production, the Security Daily reported on Tuesday.
Since September, food prices have plummeted. High-frequency data showed the decline in the average wholesale price for pork enlarged to 57.6 percent year-on-year in September. The range of the drop in prices for 28 key monitored vegetables extended to 5.7 percent year-on-year in September.
The low price for pork in the fourth quarter is still key for maintaining a stable CPI, said Lian Ping, chief economist at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, who estimated the year-on-year rise for the CPI in September will stand at 0.8 percent.
Analysts at Industrial Securities also deemed the drop in the pork price may drag down the rise in the CPI. Guotai Junan Securities and Soochow Securities estimated the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI in September will drop to around 0.6 percent.
On the other hand, multiple institutions anticipated the year-on-year rise of the PPI will increase to higher than 10 percent in September due to the price hikes in coal, chemical industry products and steel.
Data showed more than 60 percent of products among the 50 key means of production saw prices go up in late September compared to early September. Of the goods, coal, chemical industry products and steel posted larger price increases.
The year-on-year PPI growth will increase to 10.2 percent in September from 9.5 percent in August, said Wang Jingwen, a researcher at China Minsheng Bank.